PV industry supply chain prices: uncertain market demand, high inventory pressure, product chain prices may continue to drop

· PV Price Trends
PV industry supply chain prices: uncertain market demand, high inventory pressure, product chain prices may continue to drop

Solar silicon: market turnover improved compared to the middle and early part of the month, but solar silicon offers continued to drop

Most solar silicon companies are still in the order delivery stage, with solar silicon price cuts mainly coming from spot bulk orders. Individual companies are still maintaining their quotations from the beginning of the month, but there are almost no orders and companies have a small backlog of inventory. Monocrystalline dense material and monocrystalline re-injection material prices were relatively close to each other this week, with the overall RMB quotation for monocrystalline material reduced to around RMB 36.90/KG. From the market feedback, the leading solar wafer enterprises cut their quotations again this week, driving other enterprises to follow the price cuts, and the downstream market is still in a state of adjustment. Next week, solar wafer companies will sign orders for January next year, and market prices are likely to continue to drop, with transaction prices expected to remain lower than existing quotes.

Observe the production operation and shipment of solar silicon, from December onwards China's Inner Mongolia Tongwei, Xinjiang Daquan (a total of 85,000 tons / year) new production capacity successively put into operation, coupled with the early China Jiangsu GCL, Sichuan Tongwei put into operation project, is expected to be the month solar silicon production ring than in November to improve about 45,000 tons. Orders, by the downstream start rate is relatively low, the recent overall solar silicon signing rate is not high, some solar silicon enterprises inventory becomes large, silicon market supply appeared a small surplus, with the downstream around the Spring Festival stocking demand becomes larger, solar silicon market supply and demand again towards balance.


Solar wafers: offers fall sharply, monocrystalline solar wafers most visible

This week, following the announcement of a new round of offers by Longy, the market offers were in chaos, in which some enterprises have adjusted their offers, while others continued to observe the market situation and did not want to blindly follow the decline in the case of continuous inventory consumption. A few enterprises in the market have appeared to clear inventory prices in order to rush sales at the end of the year and digest their stocks, but this week the actual market transaction orders are less. The average price of G1 solar wafers has been reduced to USD 0.76/PC, while the average price of M6 monocrystalline solar wafers has been temporarily stabilised at USD 0.77/PC due to the decline in supply. The average market price for G12 solar wafers was reduced to USD 1.26/PC.

Observe the production operation and shipment of solar wafers, the current solar wafer link start rate is low, the same period there are new production capacity production time delayed, but solar wafers relative to the amount of downstream demand can not be completed to meet. With the upstream prices continue to drop, and the Chinese New Year before the stocking demand, will to a certain extent promote the solar wafer start rate rise.


Solar cells: small changes in offers, monocrystalline cell prices stable overall

As most of the first-tier companies have not announced their next month's licence prices, there were no significant fluctuations in solar cell market offers this week, with overall offers remaining stable, but bulk orders have seen prices decline. And as the recent market offer for the solar wafer segment is still being adjusted, solar cell manufacturers are reluctant to offer easily. The price of monocrystalline M6 products has stabilised slightly due to the reduced supply in the market, with the average market price temporarily stable at USD 0.16/W. However, with the increase in the proportion of large-sized products shipped, the demand for monocrystalline M6 is limited in the market, and the duration of this round may be short, mainly driven by the demand for retrofitting of PV projects under construction in the first quarter of next year. This round is likely to be short-lived, mainly driven by demand for retrofitting of PV projects under construction in the first quarter next year.

In terms of polycrystalline solar cells, overseas Indian polycrystalline demand is small, the recent price continues to drop, the success rate of downstream signings is low, the price at home and abroad further dropped to RMB 0.72/W and USD 0.016/W.


PV module prices fluctuate slightly, 166mm and 210mm PV module offers continue to drop

There is still no significant improvement in the terminal market this week. Although prices in the upper reaches of the industry chain have been continuously reduced recently, the demand for terminal purchases is low and there are fewer bargaining orders for PV modules, resulting in slow price fluctuations. At present, the mainstream quotation of 166mm size PV modules dropped to USD 0.29/W, 182mm size PV modules were quoted at around USD 0.30/W and 210mm size PV modules dropped to around USD 0.29/W. Observing the production operation of PV modules, due to the uncertainty of demand in the first quarter, most PV module enterprises strictly control the start-up rate at 5-7%, and the market inventory is normal. Some PV module enterprises feedback that they have obviously felt the pressure of downstream purchase price reduction recently, and it is difficult to maintain the stability of the quotation, and it is expected that the PV module market will continue to be adjusted downwards next week.

In terms of photovoltaic auxiliary materials, glass quotations remained stable this week. 3.2mm thickness glass prices were at USD 3.93-4.08/㎡ and 2.0mm thickness glass prices were around USD 2.98-3.30/㎡. terminal demand has not improved significantly since December, some photovoltaic glass production line ignition was delayed and individual enterprises reduced production. This week, glass shipments are not smooth, some enterprises to grab orders, 3.2mm thickness of glass quoted to USD 3.61-3.77/㎡, the volume of transactions is small.


Next week's forecast.

The PV module market is expected to continue to drop next week. Now most of the enterprises are in the order delivery stage, only a small number of bulk orders, the market demand is not large, there are still many enterprises have inventory pressure, coupled with the demand in the first quarter is not clear, most enterprises are relatively conservative. However, with the pre-Spring Festival stocking demand, market prices will fluctuate slightly.