Maysun Information: PV Industry Supply Chain Price Report

November 29 - December 5, 2021

· PV Industry News
Maysun Information: PV Industry Supply Chain Price Report November 29 - December 5, 2021

Solar silicon quotes remain stable, but downstream pressure to cut prices emerges, with a slight price decline expected

Solar silicon quotations remained stable this week, but pressure on transactions increased. This week, most silicon companies started to negotiate new orders for December. As the downstream continues to show signals of downward adjustments recently, the pressure to reduce prices has also been transmitted to the solar silicon segment, and some silicon companies have shown signs of a slight relaxation in their offers for orders from old customers. At present, the downstream continues to clear its inventory, the purchase wait-and-see atmosphere is thick, this week's solar silicon turnover volume is small. Part of the first-line material enterprises for supply and demand considerations, still reluctant to adjust the offer, there is no inventory pressure. The average price of monocrystalline silicon was maintained at USD 42.55/KG, while the price of overseas solar silicon remained firm at USD 37/KG due to the stability of the Chinese solar silicon offer and slight exchange rate fluctuations.

Observing the production operation and shipment of solar silicon, there are 12 solar silicon enterprises in production in China. From the perspective of the entire fourth quarter, the output of solar silicon was flat in October and November, with a combined output of 84,000 tonnes, due to the impact of dual control of energy consumption and normal maintenance of enterprises in the earlier period. With the gradual release of new production capacity in China's Sichuan and Jiangsu regions and the maintenance of a high crop rate by enterprises in production, solar silicon output is expected to increase in December on a sequential basis. The current solar silicon segment is still relatively undersized relative to downstream capacity, but the pressure to reduce prices has been transmitted to the silicon market, the downstream segments to replenish inventory demand has not been fully released, silicon prices are expected to decline slightly after the game.

Solar silicon wafer quotes fall sharply, M6, M10 quotes down significantly

Leading solar wafer companies have recently announced their latest wafer offers, with prices falling for all types of monocrystalline wafers. The average market price for G1 wafers fell to USD0.80/PC, for M6 wafers to USD0.83/PC and for G12 wafers to USD1.40/PC this week, with the most significant drop in monocrystalline M10 wafers to USD0.96-0.98/PC. The pace of downstream purchases has become slower and solar wafer ring shipments are less, resulting in rising inventory levels and increasing pressure on shipments, which is expected to prevent solar wafer offers from stabilizing in the near term.

Observe the production operation and shipments of solar wafers, the fourth quarter terminal pull continues, the downstream procurement is not active, the current solar wafer link inventory initiative to reduce prices into the market, on the one hand, solar wafers to benefit the downstream, and promote solar wafer procurement. On the other hand, solar wafer price cuts to the solar silicon end of the continued transmission of price reduction pressure, third-party silicon foundry profit levels will also decline. In terms of production scheduling, the current market, the first-line leading enterprises to guide the wafer thickness continues to thin to 165μm, integrated enterprise crop rate than the previous period there is a certain decline, the first-line leading enterprises to maintain a relatively low crop rate, the rest of the enterprise crop rate have different degrees of decline.

Solar cell prices loosened, monocrystalline cell product price cuts are more obvious

Recently, due to the strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the market, resulting in more difficult shipments of solar cells. And in the upstream industry chain price loosening situation, the cell offer is difficult to maintain stability, this week continued to decline, monocrystalline cells are particularly obvious, this week the mainstream price of monocrystalline G1 cells in USD 0.18/W, M6 cells mainstream price in USD 0.17/W. M10, G12 monocrystalline cells mainstream price are in USD 0.18/W. This week the solar silicon wafer suddenly cut prices, the cell This week, the solar wafer market offer is not yet clear, while the downstream inventory backlog, procurement power is insufficient, the overall cell start-up rate of water is far below the level of previous years. Based on profitability considerations, the current solar cell enterprises concession space is small.

In terms of polycrystalline solar cells, the overall demand for polycrystalline cells, shipments are general, if the upstream polysilicon wafer offers continue to fluctuate, polycrystalline cell offers are also difficult to stabilize, the current mainstream prices at home and abroad fell to USD 0.13/W and USD 0.019/W.

PV module offers continue to loosen, with prices for large-sized PV modules dropping significantly

As the recent upstream solar wafer and cell link prices have been adjusted downwards, some of the second and third tier factories are also making certain adjustments to module spot prices, but the downstream terminals are still expecting further price reductions and there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the PV module market, pushing the 166mm size mainstream offer down to USD0.306/W, and the current 182mm size module mainstream offer down to The current mainstream offer for 182mm modules has been revised down to USD0.307/W and 210mm modules have been revised down to USD0.31/W.

In terms of demand, there is still some demand for monocrystalline PV modules in the overall market, with orders from some first-tier enterprises concentrated and shipments going smoothly. Overseas markets, India, the United States, Brazil and other regions installed demand firm, with the current round of PV module price fluctuations tend to slow down, is expected to promote the PV module market inventory to accelerate clearing.

Next week's PV module market forecast

PV module prices fell slightly this week and are expected to stay stable at this price next week. Although solar silicon and PV module prices have been adjusted downwards, shipping costs have risen and it is difficult to book containers because of the proximity of Christmas and the Chinese New Year. So the cost of PV modules exported from China basically did not change, if the sea freight continues to rise to August prices, then the cost of PV modules sent to Europe may continue to rise, so next week is the best time for the PV module merchants to order before Christmas, I hope to grasp.